Although the next presidential election is still two years away, national media has already named two prominent Republicans as top contenders: former President Donald Trump, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis. While Trump has already declared his candidacy, DeSantis – although he fared remarkably well in the midterms – hasn’t indicated that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024.
Trump is counting on his loyal base to stick with him enough to rise above any competition and current President Joe Biden – who is expected to be the Democratic candidate in 2024. In Louisiana, at least, it seems he has little to fear from DeSantis. In a recent survey conducted by My People Vote with Edgewater Research, registered Republican voters in Louisiana indicated a clear preference for Trump over DeSantis for the Republican presidential nomination. Over 56% of those surveyed indicated that they would prefer a Trump candidacy over DeSantis, with only 8% undecided.
While some may have expected younger Republicans to prefer DeSantis, who is rapidly gaining popularity at the national level, that wasn’t the case. According to the poll, 63% of Louisiana Republicans under 50 preferred Trump, compared to only 50% of those 50 and older. Unsurprisingly, the former president performed best in Louisiana’s 2nd District, where a whopping 86% of Republican voters preferred him to DeSantis – compared to 51% in the 5th and 6th districts, 52% in the 7th district, 58% in the 3rd district, and 59% in the 4th district.
Whether Trump can retain his loyal base nationwide has yet to be seen. Following the midterm elections, many Republican politicians have begun to turn away from Trump. Many of the former president’s endorsees lost, and with his legal troubles continuing to make headlines, some – including his so-called friends at Fox News – have begun to paint Trump as a loser who is only hurting the party. Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post – all owned by Rupert Murdoch – have each run negative stories on Trump following the elections, with the New York Post even saying that he “sabotaged” Republicans.
Today's cover: Here’s how Donald Trump sabotaged the Republican midterms https://t.co/YUtDosSGfp pic.twitter.com/vpI94nKuBh
— New York Post (@nypost) November 10, 2022
Several polls in other states have shown the tide may be turning against Trump in a match-up against DeSantis, including in states where the former president was once the popular candidate. Polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, and Georgia all found that Republican voters would choose the Florida governor over Trump.
And if Trump is counting on the size of his war chest to help sway voters with advertisements, he may not be as far ahead as he would like. while his total war chest is estimated to be around $100 million, DeSantis is believed to have around $90 million to draw from after one of the most highly-funded gubernatorial campaigns in history. Since Trump has already declared his candidacy, he is now constrained by tighter doner limits, including a contribution cap for anyone giving directly to his campaign. In addition, several prominent billionaires – cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, metal industry magnate Andy Sabin and Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman – have all made statements against Trump.
